Jay Leno Can Still Do the Right Thing

With all the rumors flying in the entertainment blog echochamber, it’s hard to tell what’s really happening the world of NBC’s late night programming. Can Conan really not say anything bad about NBC? (Unlikely.) Is this week really his last as Tonight Show host? (In all probability, even by his own admission, and now in seeming actual fact.)

But when Jay Leno finally explained on his January 18th, 2010 show that this is happening because NBC won’t let him out of his contract, and he has no animosity toward Conan O’Brien, I believe him.

Even with both men caught in the middle of NBC’s general ratings woes, it’s pretty clear why Jay needs to be the bigger man, and step down.

The trouble began with a now six year old deal to have Conan O’Brien replace Leno as host of The Tonight Show in 2009. It’s a bizarre sort of calculus to try to accurately predict the depreciation of one’s “assets” — especially in the case of TV where few can predict what will happen five months out, let alone five years. It shows a lack of faith in the network’s star talent, especially for a #1 show on a network that has few #1 shows — a problem that has since only worsened for NBC. Conan, who had every reason to go for the deal, agreed. Leno, who had every reason not to go for the deal, also agreed. NBC arguably had to do something, reportedly being faced with the possibility of Fox snatching away Conan after 12 years at the helm of David Letterman’s Late Night. But was this the right answer? Leno: 0, Conan: 1, NBC: 0.

Last night, Leno admitted that he would not have been able to work for a year if he hadn’t taken up NBC on its offer of a prime time show — quite plausible given that Conan is now, reportedly, in a similar situation. But there were warning signs that self-appointed entertainment industry guardians noticed which NBC (and by extension Leno) ignored or outright dismissed. Chief among them was the predicted — and eventually actualized — revolt by NBC affiliates justifiably afraid of how Leno’s show would damage their prime time lead-in to local news and the rest of NBC’s late night schedule. If Leno’s accounting of the situation is correct, then NBC knew that Leno’s prime time show would get killed in ratings by the more expensive scripted dramas. (This, of course, made it a difficult sell to affiliates, who were strong-armed into compliance after making various threats not to run Jay’s show.) But Leno wanted to work, and NBC wanted to save money producing up to five such shows itself, claiming (according to Leno) that he would make up the ratings slump in the summer months when their rivals networks’ shows were on hiatus. Leno bought into this faulty logic, with seemingly little concern for the economics of the situation. Leno: -1, Conan: 1, NBC: -2.

As scheduled, Jay stepped aside, and Conan ran (almost literally) from New York to LA to begin his dream helming one of the most storied television franchises in the world. Both (reportedly) secure in three-year deals on their respective shows, each man had every reason to believe he would have ample opportunity to prove their chops in their new-ish roles. Leno: 0, Conan: 2, NBC: -1.

Then the completely predictable (and predicted) happened: affiliates lost quite a bit of prime time advertising revenue — up to 50% in some markets — and viewing numbers for local news decreased just as dramatically. NBC had “saved” money at the cost of their affiliates’ revenue. David Letterman’s admission of infidelity skyrocketed his show to #1 in late night. (Would it have been that way if Jay had stayed host of the Tonight Show? Who’s to say.) Faced with such daunting odds, and never testing its theory of a summer ratings cleanup, NBC instead decided to “cancel” Leno’s show, leaving us in the current unresolved mess. Leno: 0, Conan: 2, NBC: -2.

What is seems to boil down to is that NBC just isn’t big enough for Jay Leno and Conan O’Brien. Perhaps NBC was aware of this fact in 2004, and decided to be proactive to prevent a situation similar to when NBC wasn’t big enough for David Letterman and Jay Leno in 1992. NBC’s mistake was to try to hold in to both; it would have to break its promise to someone eventually, and just kicked the can down the road five years. Now it looks like that “someone” is Conan, but it’s not too late for Jay to be the bigger man and step aside.

On top of all its other financial woes, NBC will have to pay either host to leave his current job. Neither one will be able to work at another network until at least 2011 (or seemingly fall 2010, in Conan’s case), assuming they have a realistic chance of working for another network at all. Jay Leno had been at the helm of the Tonight Show for almost 20 years — including his many guest host appearances during Johnny Carson’s reign — reaching the pinnacle of late night. He decided to step aside, even if he might feel that decision was a poor one in retrospect, resigning himself and his employees (in every sense of the word) to be out of work well before the idea and offer of a prime time show ever came along. Conan and crew had every expectation of three years of job security, yet now are faced with the prospect of none at all. If Conan is truly considering leaving NBC, taking the hit of being out of work for a year (six months?), then he is doing the noble thing of saving two other shows (and their employees) from the potentially disatrous effects of a half-hour bump in the schedule. Leno: -1, Conan: 3, NBC: -2.

Jay Leno, on the other hand, has a chance to save three by only making the sacrifice that Conan is already likely to make. He claims that he’s been “just going along” with what the network has wanted all this time, but now he has a chance to stop being lead around by the nose and make a principled stand to eclipse Conan’s. Leno: 1, Conan: 2, NBC: -2.

Despite NBC’s bungling of the situation, one of these men will sadly have to fall on their sword. Which one should it be?

You do the math.